2020 Prediction: Trump will win re-election.

As an avid observer of US politics, I have to share my overview predictions on the looming US elections. My predictions have been spot on since 2008, so I’m emboldened to share once more. Let’s get to it. It’s a quick one…

The US polls are predicting a clear Biden victory. If the polls have it their way, Biden should outperform Trump by a historic landslide. The Economist’s forecast gives him a comfortable 92% chance of victory. However, I have a hunch that many analysts are not taking into consideration the slight and discreet shift in ideology amongst black Americans and Hispanics towards conservatism. The polls themselves don’t factor in the possibility that some participants are hiding their opinions for fear of being associated with Trump.

The black vote:

The largely democratic African-American electorate is going to be crucial for Trump’s reelection. Numerous campaigns including Candice Owens’ Blexit movement have made leeway in the black community and may prove to be more effective than the democrats are anticipating. Also; conservative organisations such as PragerU and Turning Point have been, for three years, penetrating millennials in the universities. In addition; the historic low unemployment numbers amongst blacks and Latinos under Trump’s watch will surely provoke some minorities to rethink their allegiance. Just a remnant from these minority groups will shift the election.

Tax Rates:

Biden’s proposed tax rates for some states are sitting at 60% average if I’m correct. Already the high tax rates in democratic states have pushed the private sector away. The current business exodus from California should be of concern for Democrats. As of last year, over 1800 Companies (the likes of Tesla and many tech companies) have left the Democrat-run state because of the hefty tax rates. Even rappers are questioning democratic policies. Kanye West turned “red” a year ago. Just a week ago, the influential rapper 50 cent endorsed Trump after weighing in on Biden’s tax proposition for New York. Ice Cube has expressed openness to working with Republicans. Now Lil Wayne is commending the President for his criminal reform policy and the platinum plan. Democrats should be worried about the black vote.

Another point. Trump is capitalising on the issue of fracking — a topic very dear to the crucial state of Pennsylvania and Texas. Although Pennsylvania is up for grabs, Biden’s take on fossil fuels will not win him the crucial state.

Corona Virus:

This is Trump’s weakest point. A topic Democrats are running on. The pandemic is playing a major role in the election. I must admit, Trump’s handling of the pandemic has not been cautionary at all. However, we are to be mindful that the US and India test more than any other nation, and therefore their covid cases will shoot up the roof. Anyhow, with over 200k deaths and counting, Trump is on the defense and you’d be forgiven for thinking that he’s already lost the election.

Biden may possibly be better at handling the Pandemic, but he is perceived to be pessimistic on the Covid issue and some think he would shut down the country once elected; this may not sit well with some independents. In the final debate, Trump opted for optimism in his rhetoric. “We are learning to live with it”, knowing very well it will resonate with his base in Michigan (which is under severe lockdown) and is strikingly in contrast to Biden’s bleak response that “we’re learning to die with it”. I think pundits are miscalculating the mood in Michigan — a must-win state for Biden

Conclusion:

There are many factors, that I do not have the energy and time to delve into, such as the George Floyd saga, the Middle East peace agreements, the trade war, Trump’s questionable character, the supreme court, and the suburban mothers who are crucial for both candidates. Overall, the black vote is going to play a pivotal role in trump’s re-election. I, for one, foresee a fair portion of the black community leaning Republican this time around, unprecedentedly tipping the election in favour of the conservatives. White evangelicals will remain loyal to Trump. The real battle will be in Pennsylvania. But also watch out for California.

If Trump keeps Pennsylvania and Florida; Biden will concede. If Biden wins Pennsylvania or snatches Florida, Trump will lose, unless he shocks America by grabbing California (and its 55 electoral votes) — but that’s a risky bet.

Final verdict:

Amid the polls, Covid-19, and the dominating narratives against Trump, my predictions lead me to a Trump victory. It will be a close one, with a high possibility of a recount in Pennsylvania or Florida; but Trump will be re-elected for the second term causing another 2020 upset and a possible uproar. The Republican Party will retain the Senate. I’m not sure if they can take the house from Pelosi but prepare for four more years of Donald Trump.

Then again, this is 2020. And anything may happen. I could be wrong.

But I doubt it!


by: MF Petje
November 1, 2020, 5:04 pm

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